The February ICO composite dropped 9.9%, and some analysts are floating $2.00/lb or below. Don't let the dip fool you into over-committing. The supply outlook is wide, compliance deadlines are real, and your competitors haven't repriced yet. This is a planning week, not a buying spree.
| Indicator | Level | Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| ICO Composite | 267.57 US c/lb | ↓ 9.9% MoM | Watch |
| Arabica (NYC C) | ~293 US c/lb | ↓ from highs | Watch |
| Robusta (London) | Elevated | — Holding | Note |
| 2025/26 Supply outlook | +6% to +12% vs prior year | ↓ Bearish pressure | Watch |
| Analyst downside targets | $2.00–$1.80/lb discussed | New | Act |
The ICO's February 2026 composite averaged 267.57 US cents/lb, a 9.9% decline from January. Their market report pegged 2025/26 output expectations at 6% to 12% above the prior coffee year. Meanwhile, Reuters reported on March 18 that some analysts are openly discussing a move toward $2.00/lb or even $1.80/lb from the roughly $2.93/lb range.
If prices keep falling: Your current green inventory may be priced above replacement cost. That's a short-term margin boost — but only if you don't re-buy at the wrong time.
If the 6–12% supply bump materializes: Availability improves, but the wide range means you can't plan around a single number. Locking in long-term contracts at today's level carries risk in both directions.
The SCA's roaster survey is clear: Operators themselves named availability, pricing, costs, and cash flow as top business problems. Volatility was flagged as the biggest single threat to roaster stability. This isn't abstract — these are your peers describing the same margin squeeze you feel.
Key implication: A 9.9% input-cost drop does not mean you should cut retail prices. It means you should stress-test your margin at multiple scenarios before making any buying or pricing moves.
Note No major repricing detected yet. Across a scan of 15 independent roaster online stores this week, retail bag prices for 250g specialty blends remain in the €9–€14 range. No one is racing to cut prices on the back of the February drop.
What this tells you: The market is in a wait-and-see posture. If you cut now, you move first with no competitive pressure to do so — and you lose margin you don't need to give up.
Watch Subscription bundling increasing. Several mid-size roasters are pushing subscription plans more aggressively (free shipping, 10% discount). This suggests they're prioritizing recurring revenue and lock-in over per-bag margin. Worth tracking if you're considering a subscription tier.
Pilot members: Your custom competitor tracker includes specific pricing data for your named competitors, updated weekly. Request access →
Act EUDR deadlines are now fixed.
If you sell coffee into the EU — even as a small roaster shipping online orders — you are likely in scope. The regulation covers coffee and requires due diligence statements proving products are deforestation-free and legally produced.
Watch Origin weather. No acute weather disruptions this week in Brazil, Vietnam, or Colombia. The next inflection point is Brazil's frost-risk window (June–August). We'll flag early signals as they emerge.